Military deterrence in history: a pilot cross-historical survey

State University of New York Press • Albany • Published In • Pages: ??•
By Naroll, Raoul, Bullough, Vern L. , Naroll, Frada

Hypothesis

"Our findings suggest that centralized states or those led by experienced rulers tend to do well in the game of power politics [i.e., gain territory], while hereditary monarchies tend to do less well, as do states divided by civil war" (340)

Test

Test NameSupportSignificanceCoefficientTail
Point-biserial correlationNot Supportedp<.10supportedOne-tailed

Variables

Variable NameVariable Type OCM Term(s)
Centralization Of StateUNKNOWNSociocultural Trends
Civil WarUNKNOWNRevolution
Experience Of RulerUNKNOWNChief Executive
Hereditary MonarchyUNKNOWNChief Executive
Territorial GainUNKNOWNInstigation Of War
Unbridled RulerUNKNOWNChief Executive
Youth Of RulerUNKNOWNChief Executive

Related Hypotheses

Main AuthorHypothesis
Paine, JackStateless groups of pre-colonial state countries (SLPCS) will have more occurrences of civil war than stateless groups (SL).
Leavitt, Gregory C.The development of technology will be positively associatedwith increasing frequencies of external war, civil war, and riots (but feuding war will decrease as technology develops in society) (53)
Leavitt, Gregory C.The increasing frequency of differentiation in societies will be positively associated with an increase in external war, civil war, and riots (feuding will decrease in frequency as societies become increasingly differentiated) (54)
Aberle, David F."Stratification shows a significant, strong over-all association with size of political unit, with a strong tendency for complex stratification to be associated with 'states' and hereditary aristocracy with 'little states'" (694)
Naroll, Raoul"The geographical factors we studied have had little if any relationship to war frequency among the Conspicuous States we studied . . . . War tended to be slightly less frequent when the Conspicuous States shared a common land boundary with their Conspicuous Rivals" (332)