Abstract
What have been the causes and consequences of technological evolution in world history? In particular, what caused an increase widespread of military technologies, details of which are comparatively well preserved and which are often seen as drivers of broad socio-cultural processes? This study analyzes competing theories of military technological change by examining whether population proportion, connectivity among societies, major technological innovations, and state-level characteristics influenced the development and diffusion of military technologies over approximately 10,000 years of pre-industrial history. Using data from the Seshat: Global History Databank, the authors analyzed patterns of military technological evolution across a worldwide sample of pre-industrial societies with dynamic regression models that accounted for temporal and spatial processes. What was found was that global population size, connectivity through networks of information exchange, and enabling innovations such as iron metallurgy and horse riding were significant predictors of advances in military technology. In contrast, state-level characteristics—including population size, territorial extent, and administrative sophistication—showed little evidence of influencing technological development. These results suggest that military technological evolution was driven primarily by large-scale demographic and intersocietal processes rather than internal political organization, providing new evidence for understanding the long-term evolution of technology and increasing social complexity.