Military deterrence in history: a pilot cross-historical survey

State University of New York Press • Albany • Published In • Pages: ??•
By Naroll, Raoul, Bullough, Vern L. , Naroll, Frada

Hypothesis

"Territorial gain proved unrelated to one-sided benefits [subsidy, women or honors conferred by one state on its rival] or trade. However . . . there may be a relationship between cultural exchange and territorial gain" (339-340)

Test

Test NameSupportSignificanceCoefficientTail
Point-biserial correlationNot Supportedabove .10not supportedOne-tailed

Variables

Variable NameVariable Type OCM Term(s)
Cultural ExchangeUNKNOWNExternal Relations
One-sided BenefitsUNKNOWNExternal Relations
Territorial GainUNKNOWNInstigation Of War
TradeUNKNOWNExternal Relations

Related Hypotheses

Main AuthorHypothesis
Naroll, Raoul"We found trade to be more frequent in more peaceful decades than in less peaceful ones. So too we found the exchanges of culturally influential elites such as visiting teachers, students, missionaries, royal brides, entertainers, or hostages to be more frequent in the peaceful decades"
Naroll, RaoulThere are some indications that military preparation promotes territorial gain. Defensive stance correlated negatively with territorial gain, while quality of armed forces correlated positively. However, territorial gain showed no relation to border fortifications, and none to strength, mobility or prestige of armed forces (337)
Naroll, RaoulGeographical factors do not promote territorial gain, considering strategy (the winning of entire wars) rather than tactics (the winning of a particular battle) (338)
Naroll, Raoul"We find no evidence that diplomacy . . . [furthers] the success of . . . states in gaining territory. . . . The only substantial relationship uncovered offers no comfort [to the hypothesis that diplomacy promotes territorial gain. We found that] the more territory a state is losing, the more active its diplomats" (point-biserial -.50, p = .01) (338, 339)
Pryor, Frederic L.Cultural diffusion influences the market exchange of goods by affecting external trade (148).