Military deterrence in history: a pilot cross-historical survey

State University of New York Press • Albany • Published In • Pages: ??•
By Naroll, Raoul, Bullough, Vern L. , Naroll, Frada

Hypothesis

"It was predicted, in accordance with the deterrence hypothesis, that wars would be less frequent during the periods when the 'Conspicuous State' while in a defensive stance, enjoyed the specific military advantages, than during other periods"(329)

Test

Test NameSupportSignificanceCoefficientTail
Point-biserial correlationPartially supportedabove .10UNKNOWNOne-tailed

Variables

Variable NameVariable Type OCM Term(s)
Specific Military AdvantagesUNKNOWNArmed Forces
War FrequencyUNKNOWNInstigation Of War

Related Hypotheses

Main AuthorHypothesis
Naroll, Raoul"None of the administrative . . . [factors] we examined proved to have any clear relationship with war frequency" (336)
Naroll, Raoul"The geographical factors we studied have had little if any relationship to war frequency among the Conspicuous States we studied . . . . War tended to be slightly less frequent when the Conspicuous States shared a common land boundary with their Conspicuous Rivals" (332)
Naroll, Raoul"Diplomatic policies of the sort here studied have had little if any effect on war frequency among the conflicts we studied. Announcements of intention--warnings by aggressor states--were, if anything, associated with longer or more frequent wars" (333)
Naroll, RaoulGeographical factors do not promote territorial gain, considering strategy (the winning of entire wars) rather than tactics (the winning of a particular battle) (338)
Naroll, Raoul"Territorial gain proved unrelated to one-sided benefits [subsidy, women or honors conferred by one state on its rival] or trade. However . . . there may be a relationship between cultural exchange and territorial gain" (339-340)