Redemption through Rebellion: Border Change, Lost Unity, and Nationalist Conflict

American Journal of Political Science Vol/Iss. 66(1) Wiley Hoboken, NJ Published In Pages: 24-42
By Cederman, Lars-Erik, Rüegger, Seraina, Schvitz, Guy


Higher increases in territorial fractionalization over time will be positively correlated with violent conflict against ethnically distinct host government.


Results below are for the global sample of aggregate group (AG) level variables from 1946 to 2017. Results were also positive and significant for the global sample since 1886 (p<0.001) and before 1946 (p<0.05), the European subsample since 1886 (p<0.05) and the African subsample since 1886 (p<0.001). Results were robust to a number of different controls.


Test NameSupportSignificanceCoefficientTail
Logistic regressionSupportedp<0.001Not standardizedUNKNOWN